Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.022395 0.025409 0.028685 0.032512 0.036863 0.041657 0.047344
2025-05-25 0.017156 0.021173 0.025924 0.031964 0.039451 0.048438 0.060067
2025-06-01 0.014692 0.019198 0.024842 0.032444 0.042439 0.055164 0.072648
2025-06-08 0.012697 0.017380 0.023528 0.032208 0.044187 0.060191 0.083294
2025-06-15 0.011574 0.016497 0.023227 0.033129 0.047384 0.067250 0.097199
2025-06-22 0.010053 0.014849 0.021645 0.032014 0.047510 0.069929 0.105050
2025-06-29 0.008999 0.013731 0.020660 0.031589 0.048492 0.073801 0.114877
2025-07-06 0.007946 0.012492 0.019350 0.030503 0.048305 0.075815 0.121945
2025-07-13 0.007557 0.012223 0.019468 0.031600 0.051558 0.083351 0.138358
2025-07-20 0.007145 0.011870 0.019406 0.032377 0.054332 0.090319 0.154454
2025-07-27 0.006821 0.011622 0.019480 0.033363 0.057507 0.098177 0.172737
2025-08-03 0.006319 0.011026 0.018917 0.033207 0.058698 0.102753 0.185702
2025-08-10 0.005889 0.010526 0.018487 0.033267 0.060320 0.108300 0.201108
2025-08-17 0.005410 0.009895 0.017778 0.032767 0.060893 0.112043 0.213598
2025-08-24 0.005130 0.009596 0.017626 0.033256 0.063305 0.119309 0.233383
2025-08-31 0.004774 0.009123 0.017113 0.033014 0.064301 0.123989 0.248572
2025-09-07 0.004607 0.008990 0.017219 0.033958 0.067657 0.133454 0.274151
2025-09-14 0.004196 0.008350 0.016303 0.032815 0.066769 0.134504 0.282644
2025-09-21 0.003907 0.007925 0.015768 0.032379 0.067259 0.138324 0.297228
2025-09-28 0.003569 0.007373 0.014937 0.031265 0.066238 0.138947 0.305006
2025-10-05 0.003493 0.007352 0.015172 0.032390 0.070035 0.149945 0.336492
2025-10-12 0.003387 0.007259 0.015252 0.033187 0.073187 0.159830 0.366437
2025-10-19 0.003306 0.007213 0.015425 0.034198 0.076894 0.171232 0.400945